WDPN32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 16//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY SHOWS
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE DEEP
CENTRAL CONVECTION DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON A 21119Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON
AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE ASCAT PASS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY,
OUTFLOW FROM TS 12W (LIONROCK) TO THE WEST IS INHIBITING
DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A HIGH-LATITUDE MONSOON GYRE
AND IS BEING STEERED BY A SOUTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF KAMCHATKA.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE STR EXTENSION WITH A SLIGHT WESTWARD BEND DUE TO THE BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 12W. A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WARM WATERS (28 CELSIUS) AND DIMINISHING BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 12W, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS BY TAU 12 PRIOR TO
LANDFALL INTO THE ISLAND OF HONSHU NEAR TOKYO. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MAIN STR ASSUMES STEERING. OVERALL, THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.//