WDPN32 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 10W (MINDULLE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 422 NM SOUTH
OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER  (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE EXPLOSED LLCC AND WAS CORROBORATED WITH
THE 202138Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
HELD AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 BY
PGTW. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CONTINUATION OF A LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT (5 TO 15 KNOTS) OVER TS 10W.
HOWEVER, THE FACT THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LLCC WHEREAS THE OPPOSITE CONVECTIVE DISPLACEMENT TO THE
NORTH IS EVIDENT FOR TS 12W SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM BOTH SYSTEMS IS IMPARTING A NEGATIVE
INFLUENCE ON BOTH. CONTINUED DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS FURTHER
INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON GYRE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE
FORECAST PEAK INTENSITY.
   B. TS 10W HAS TURNED TO THE NORTH BUT A CONTINUED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE CIRCULATION
OF TS 12W. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD FOLLOW
AROUND TAU 24 NEAR LANDFALL IN JAPAN. GIVEN THAT THE CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE AGAINST THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR INTRUSION AND
THE CIRCULATION OF TS 12W, THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN REDUCED
SLIGHTLY. HOWEVER, FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
AHEAD OF THE STORM SHOULD STILL PROVIDE A WINDOW OF MODEST
INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SO TS 10W IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH JAPAN AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH GREATER
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
   C. TS 10W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 72 AS IT
ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND BAROCLINIC ZONE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. OVERALL, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK
FORECAST, BUT THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN./=