WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NIDA) WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
HONG KONG RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A 45-NM DIAMETER
EYE. A 011123Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A SYMMETRIC MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE SURROUNDED BY A CYAN RING, WHICH SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES HONG KONG OVER THE NEXT 06 TO 08
HOURS. SURFACE WINDS FROM HONG KONG RANGE FROM 10 TO 16 KNOTS WHILE
WAGLAN ISLAND (45045) REPORTED NORTHERLY WINDS AT 24 KNOTS AND SLP
OF 993.5MB. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION DUE TO THE
LARGE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND RECENT SATCON
ESTIMATES OF 82 TO 83 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 06 WITH WARM SST (30C), GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT
06 HOURS ALLOWING FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 85 TO 90 KNOTS PRIOR
TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF HONG KONG, TY 06W WILL
RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN CHINA. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST
SIX HOURS, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//