WDPN31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 06W (NIDA) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION IN THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH A BROAD
RAGGED EYE STARTING TO FORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND IS BASED ON THE MSI DATA SHOWING A WELL DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE DENSE OVERCAST
LAYER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON
OBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM
PGTW AND RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE
WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 30 CELSIUS, STRONG
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES NEAR 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TY 06W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING RIDGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THE BEGINNING STAGES OF EYE FORMATION INDICATE
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEAR FUTURE. PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH 75 KNOTS. LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG IS EXPECTED NEAR
TAU 24. TY 06W WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN
CHINA, DISSIPATING BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY
TIGHT AGREEMENT AND HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK AND IS CONSISTENT WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS.//