WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 175 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS 
WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A 15-NM BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE ON THE EIR LOOP AND ON THE 031142Z SSMI-S 
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON 
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND REFLECTS 
THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING 
LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, 
PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, TY 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE 
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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