WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING 
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING EYE. A 
022206Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, NEAR-RADIAL 
OUTFLOW AND WARM SST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TS MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING 
A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 36. THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, 
PEAKING AT 70 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTERWARDS, TS 22W WILL RAPIDLY ERODE 
DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
 
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