WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (MUJIGAE) WARNING 
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (MUJIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM 
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS  
FORMATIVE BANDS, WRAPPING INTO A LARGER CIRCULATION CENTER, DEEPENED.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 
SEMI-CLOSED MICROWAVE EYE ON THE 020939Z AMSU-B PASS WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON 
CONGRUENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE 
DEEPENED CONDITION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 
22W IS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS OFFSET BY A VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT 28-29 
DEGREES CELSIUS WILL ALSO ENHANCE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE CYCLONE 
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN EXTENSION OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS MUJIGAE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING 
A FINAL LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 48. THE FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, 
PEAKING AT 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION AND 
INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM, DISSIPATING OVER 
SOUTHERN CHINA BY TAU 72. THE REMNANTS OF TS 22W WILL DEFLECT 
NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. DYNAMIC 
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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