WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (LINFA) WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (LINFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED  AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED IR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH AN ISOLATED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION 
SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. A 061132Z SSMIS 
IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED CENTER JUST UNDER THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION, WHICH LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE CURRENT 
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON THE 
WEAKENED STRUCTURE AND RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY. DUE TO THE LIMITED DEEP 
CONVECTION, DVORAK ESTIMATES APPEAR TOO LOW AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.  
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE 
TO HIGH (20 TO 30 KNOT) NORTHEASTERLY VWS PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 10W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY POLEWARD UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE STEERING STR. MARGINAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO 
LIMIT INTENSIFICATION WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS NEAR TAU 24 
TO 36 AS VWS ABATES SLIGHTLY. AFTER TAU 36, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS 
FORECAST WITH DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. DUE TO PERSISTENT MARGINAL 
CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM MAY WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN CURRENTLY 
FORECAST. THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW DUE 
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND POSSIBLE WEAK DIRECT CYCLONE 
INTERACTION WITH TY 09W NEAR TAU 72.//
NNNN