WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 08W (KUJIRA) 
WARNING NR 13//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) SHOWS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE DISPLACED 
SOUTHWESTWARD OF A  PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN TOWARDS THE VIETNAM 
COAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK 
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS IN A POOR ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR AND LIMITED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS KUJIRA IS TRACKING UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EXTENSION OF THE MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS KUJIRA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VIETNAM BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INLAND, DISSIPATING BY TAU 24. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
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