WDPN31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (KUJIRA) 
WARNING NR 05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 08W (KUJIRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR 
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SLIGHTLY-SHEARED 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LLCC. A 211034Z SSMIS 
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING TIGHTLY WRAPPING 
INTO THE LLCC. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP, 
AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE AS WELL AS SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND 
RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS 
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM 
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 08W IS 
LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOT) VWS AND GOOD 
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW. TD 08W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF A STR TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 08W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE 
INTENSIFICATION LEADING TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS BY TAU 12. 
AFTERWARD, LAND INTERACTION WITH HAINAN ISLAND AND LEIZHOU PENINSULA 
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
   C. TD 08W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FURTHER INLAND AND DISSIPATE BY 
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING A NORTHWARD TRACK; HOWEVER, DUE TO A LARGE 
SPREAD AND DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEEDS AMONG AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LEVEL REMAINS LOW.//
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