WDPN31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118 NM EAST OF 
HANOI, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO SHOW TY 15W HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT STRUCTURE AND 
INTENSITY AS THE SYSTEM QUICKLY APPROACHES NORTHERN COAST OF 
VIETNAM. A 161040Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A ROUND SIGNATURE 
WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT MICROWAVE EYE. 
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED THE EIR ANIMATION AND AFOREMENTIONED 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING 
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. TY 15W 
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
TY 15W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN 
VIETNAM, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO 
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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