WDPN31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 12// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONTINUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER 130936Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOOSE 37 GHZ EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A BUILDING, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TY 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG OUTFLOW. TY KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU 24, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN OF LUZON. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROCEEDS WEST- NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN