WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W (KALMAEGI) WARNING NR 12//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KALMAEGI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 326 NM EAST OF 
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A CONTINUALLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH A BUILDING CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE (CDO) WHILE 
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. AN EARLIER 130936Z SSMIS 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS STRONG CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 
LOOSE 37 GHZ EYE FEATURE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION BASED UPON THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO TYPHOON STRENGTH (65 KNOTS) 
BASED ON THE IMPROVING STRUCTURE WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM PGTW AND RJTD HAVE INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS AS WELL. UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WHICH IS BEING OFFSET BY VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY A 
BUILDING, EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO 
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DOMINANT STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST. TY 15W WILL CONTINUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO INCLUDE WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND STRONG OUTFLOW. TY 
KALMAEGI IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN LUZON NEAR TAU 
24, LEADING TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE ROUGH TERRAIN 
OF LUZON. AS THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TY 15W TO RE-INTENSIFY 
AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 15W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PROCEEDS WEST-
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY 
DISSIPATES BY TAU 120 OVERLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST 
TRACK, WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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