WDPN31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 10// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 34 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) IMAGERY INDICATES TD 07W HAS MAINTAINED A RELATIVELY COHERENT STRUCTURE, DESPITE BEING STRETCHED IN THE DOWN-SHEAR DIRECTION, AS IT RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND RJTD RADAR FIXES WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD, RESPECTIVELY. THE DISTURBANCE PASSED ABOUT 45 NM NORTH OF AMAMI ISLAND, WHICH REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS DURING PASSAGE. TD 07W IS POLEWARD OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AND BEGINNING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT INTERACTS WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY AND MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, CURRENTLY PROVIDING 30+ KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM HAS CROSSED THE KUROSHIO CURRENT AND IS NOW OVER SHARPLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TD 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE QUICKLY TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANT LOW MAY MAINTAIN NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS BEYOND THIS FORECAST. AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, PROVIDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN