WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145 NM 
EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) ALONG WITH 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TS HAGIBIS HAS 
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS BANDING HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE 
DEFINED DESPITE THE CONVECTION BECOMING MORE SHALLOW. THIS 
CONSOLIDATION IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY A 142100Z SSMIS 37 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A WEAK BUT SYMMETRIC EYE FEATURE. THERE 
IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE TIGHTLY 
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER SEEN IN THE MSI LOOP. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE 
STRUCTURE SEEN IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AS DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOW DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE 
CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UNCHANGED ENVIRONMENT AS 
MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO OFFSET 
RECENTLY ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND CONTINUED VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD, MAKING 
LANDFALL JUST AFTER TAU 12 AND THEN SHOULD SHARPLY TURN 
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WESTERLIES. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LAND AND IS FORECAST TO 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-EMERGING OVER THE EAST 
CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 36. NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES 
AFTERWARDS IN THE TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. COAMPS-TC CONTINUES 
TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH AN UNLIKELY TRACK TOWARDS NORTHERN TAIWAN. THE 
JTWC FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK INTO LAND AND THE 
DISSIPATION SCENARIO, AS DO THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS. BASED 
ON THE TIGHT MODEL PACKING, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK.//
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