WDPN31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 141152Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE, THEREFORE, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON 
RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA AS WELL AS THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE 
ORGANIZATION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN LOWER THAN THE 
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE 
WITH INCREASING POLEWARD VENTING INTO THE WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH 
AND VIGOROUS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TS 07W IS TRACKING SLOWLY 
NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGH TAU 
36 THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT TRACKS 
POLEWARD OF THE STR AXIS INTO THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES. DYNAMIC 
GUIDANCE IS NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE 
TIMING OF THE NORTHEAST TURN. GFDN IS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN 
UNREALISTIC NORTHWARD TRACK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-TC, ALL 
THESE MODELS INDICATE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. COAMPS-TC AND HWRF 
INDICATE A SHARPER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TURN THAT TAKES THE SYSTEM 
OVER WATER. CONSEQUENTLY, BOTH THESE MODELS RE-INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM 
AFTER TAU 72. THIS SCENARIO IS DEEMED UNLIKELY AND THE JTWC FORECAST 
CONTINUES TO FAVOR A NORTHWARD TRACK OVER LAND AND THE DISSIPATION 
SCENARIO. BASED ON SUPPORTING UPPER-AIR DATA AND THE IMPROVED 
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC TRACKERS, THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TS 07W IS FORECAST TO 
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12 BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND PRIOR TO THE REMNANTS RE-
EMERGING OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA AFTER TAU 48.//
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