WDPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING 
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 452 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD, CONSOLIDATING, LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS FRAGMENTED
BUT HAS DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM AGENCY FIXES WITH
POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATE AND FROM RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES TD 06W IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER,
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED
BY A WEAK TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AT 28-30
DEGREES CELSIUS, ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TD 06W WILL TRACK ALONG THE EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY OF THE STR
THROUGHOUT ITS LIFESPAN. IT WILL SOON MAKE LANDFALL OVER SAMAR,
PHILIPPINES AROUND TAU 12, DRAG ACROSS THE ARCHIPELAGO BEFORE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR LINGAYEN GULF AROUND TAU 42. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL THEN WEAKEN
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS. IT WILL RESUME MODEST
INTENSIFICATION IN THE SCS DUE TO THE WARM SSTS, PEAKING AT 50 KNOTS
BY TAU 72, TEMPERED ONLY BY INCREASING VWS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 06W WILL MAKE A FINAL LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, DISSIPATING INLAND BY END
OF FORECAST. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH MINOR
SPREADING TOWARDS THE END OF FORECAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE WELL-ESTABLISHED TRACKING MECHANISM. //
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