WDPN32 PGTW 230300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 11// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTHEASTWARD OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A RECONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS THE LLCC HAS BEEN ABLE TO REORGANIZE AND BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC AFTER PASSING OVER NORTHERN HAINAN. A 232201Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE DISPLACED DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CONSOLIDATING LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 25 KTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STRONG (25-30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW FOR THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, BUT APPEARS TO BE BEGINNING TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE STR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TD 05W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE CYCLONE WILL THEN VEER MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HANOI IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKENING STR. THE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY INTENSIFY TO APPROXIMATELY 30 KNOTS OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL, EVENTUALLY ERODING AND DISSIPATING OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO VARIOUS SOLUTIONS TO THE STRENGTH OF THE STR, BUT ALL DEPICT SOME FORM OF A NORTH-NORTHWEST TURN IN THE FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO GFS, BETWEEN ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN