WDPN31 PGTW 170300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 19// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CONVECTIVE BANDING, MOSTLY WRAPPING IN FROM THE SOUTH, HAVE SLIGHTLY DEEPENED AND TIGHTENED AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPED A 25-NM RAGGED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION AND FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE ON A 162229Z SSMIS IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE HAS SPED UP OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE, FIRMLY ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA, FURTHER BUILT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG EVEN AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW DIMINISHED. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TYPHOON KAI-TAK IS NOW POISED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, CROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN, BEFORE MAKING A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM TO THE EAST OF HANOI. DURING THIS PASSAGE, THE STORM WILL RAPIDLY DECAY DUE TO FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH WBAR TO THE RIGHT OF AND EGRR TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. THE CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS HIGH. // NNNN