WDPN31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOKSURI) WARNING NR 09// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOKSURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 335 NM NORTH OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) HAS FORMED AND DEEPENED FROM THE SHEARED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL- CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS NOW HIDDEN UNDER THE CDO. THIS DEVELOPMENT INDICATES THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS RELAXED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS HAD MULTIPLE VORTICES AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW DOMINANT VORTEX EMERGING REMAINS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD AND SUPPORTED BY SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM LAOAG, 100 NM TO THE SOUTH. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE VWS HAS WEAKENED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE NOW MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE STORM MOTION AND LOW LEVEL FLOW. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING. B. TS 07W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING STR AND MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AFTER TAU 24 THEN DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WITH FAVORABLE VWS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN A TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH WBAR AS THE SOLE RIGHT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR'S UNLIKELY PULL TOWARD THE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW VORTEX BECOMING THE LLCC RENDERS THE TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW. // NNNN