WDPN33 PGTW 010300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPERTYPHOON 22W WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (NALGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS FURTHER DEEPENED AND FEEDER BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT ELONGATED 20-NM EYE. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 302155Z SSMI-S MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A WELL-DEFINED EYE FEATURE WITH TWO CONCENTRIC WALLS OF INTENSELY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS SUPPORTED BY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS 5 DEGREES SOUTHWEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TYPHOON'S PROXIMITY TO THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS - THIS IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. 3. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. STY 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE WHOLE DURATION OF THE FORECAST. NALGAE IS POISED TO MAKE IMMEDIATE LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN LUZON, AFTER WHICH, IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE BUT WITH MINIMAL SLOWDOWN. BY TAU 12, IT WILL EMERGE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND MAINTAIN TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM WATERS (28 CELSIUS). C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 22W WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF TONKIN JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAINAN, SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT WILL MAKE FINAL LANDFALL INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY END OF FORECAST. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME SPREADING AT THE EXTENDED TAUS. WBAR IS ON THE RIGHT AND EGRR IS TO THE LEFT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST COINCIDES WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN