WDPN31 PGTW 300300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)// WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT KNOCK-TEN HAS MAINTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTION DESPITE THE EFFECTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR, WHICH IS ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS, IS STEMMING FROM THE SEASONAL ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN CHINA. THE SHEAR IS DISPLACING CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. SEVERAL SURFACE REPORTS SURROUNDING THE STORM PROVIDES GOOD CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE POSITION AND THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. TS 10W HAS CROSSED HAINAN AND IS NOW TRACKING THROUGH 31 DEGREE SEA WATERS IN THE GULF OF TONKIN. THE INTENSIFYING EFFECTS OF WARM WATER ARE BEING OFFSET BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TS 10W WILL STRENGTHEN ONLY SLIGHTLY AS THE EFFECTS OF THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE MITIGATED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35 KNOTS BY THE TIME NOCK-TEN MAKES LANDFALL, WHICH IS NEAR TAU 18. NOCK-TEN SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL AT AN INTENSITY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 KNOTS, NEAR TAU 18, AND THEN WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND.// NNNN