WDPN31 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 10W (NOCK-TEN)//
WARNING NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TYPHOON 10W (NOCK-TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC HAS MOVED JUST OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF LUZON 
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH DECREASED CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. 
THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE IR IMAGERY WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A 
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
   B. TS 10W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, 
JAPAN. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD WITH THE RIDGE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THE MAJOR STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD, WHICH SUPPORTS A STRAIGHT RUNNER WESTWARD TRACK. 
NOW THAT TS 10W HAS TRACKED BACK OVER WARM WATER IN THE SOUTH CHINA 
SEA AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REMAINS, IT IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY 
THROUGH TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD WITH 
SLIGHT WEAKENING OVER HAINAN ISLAND. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 10W WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM AND 
DISSIPATE AFTER TAU 96. THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS TRACK FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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