WDPN31 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W// WARNING NR 04// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN), LOCATED APPOXIMATELY 255 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS ACCELERATED AND TRACKED NORTHWEST- WARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CENTRAL CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THE FORMATIVE BANDS FEEDING INTO THE CYCLONE CONTINUE HAVE MAINTAINED DEPTH AND ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE IR ANIMATION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN THE VICINITY OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TD 10W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST EXTENSION OF A DEEP- LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED EAST OF JAPAN. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED TRACK OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERA- TURES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE (OVER 28 CELSIUS) WHILE VWS WILL RELAX TO LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS). C. TD 10W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72 AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FANS OUT TO A 30-DEGREE SPREAD WITH UKMET TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS FAVORING A RECEDING STR.// NNNN