WDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (HAIMA)// /WARNING NR 30// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 06W (HAIMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A LARGE LOBE OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BE SEEN TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN COAST OF HAINAN TO THE EASTERN COAST OF NORTHERN VIETNAM AND COVERS MOST OF THE GULF OF TONKIN. A 232241Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TWO DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, ONE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A THIRD, LESS INTENSE AND WIDER SPREAD CONVECTIVE BAND LIES FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. RECENT PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS OF 993MB NEAR THE SYSTEM AND A DVORAK INTENSITY T- NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM RJTD PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SSMIS PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT NORTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER EASTERN CHINA IMPINGING ON POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT EQUATORWARD AND ZONAL OUTFLOW ARE WELL-DEVELOPED. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE GULF OF TONKIN ARE EXTREMELY WARM (31-32 DEGREES CELCIUS). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REASONING. B. TS 06W WILL MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY DUE TO THE EXTREMELY WARM WATERS ALONG TRACK AND CONTINUED GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 12. THEREAFTER, TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN VIETNAM. THE STORM WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 36. THE NOGAPS, GFDN, AND GFS STEER THE SYSTEM A BIT SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS WITH THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW. THE JGSM AND EGRR SOLUTIONS STEER THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS WITH THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAYER MEAN FLOW. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE JGSM AND EGRR SOLUTIONS DUE TO EXPECTATION THAT, AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM, TS 06W WILL FOLLOW THE LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RATHER THAN THE DEEP LAYER FLOW.// NNNN