WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. REMARKS: TD 06W REMAINS A BROAD AND LOOSELY ORGANIZED SYSTEM. 
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS 
MULTIPLE SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTERS ORBITING WITHIN THE BROAD 
OVERALL CIRCULATION. THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF CONVECTION, 
BUT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS REMAIN TO THE SOUTH. OUTFLOW TO THE 
SOUTHWEST REMAINS STRONG, BUT THE CONVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN 
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND 20-30KTS OF VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR CONTINUE TO STIFLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS 
STEERING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
ANCHORED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX, 
AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON SCATTEROMETER AND LOCAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. 
   B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION 
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE 
VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE HINDERED FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY 
MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATING IN 
SOUTHERN CHINA, AROUND TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE 
IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NOGAPS AS THE ONE SIGNIFICANT OUTLIER 
TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE 
LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STR.//
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