WDPN31 PGTW 211500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 20// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. REMARKS: TD 06W REMAINS LOOSELY ORGANIZED WITH A BROAD AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 211019Z CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH POOR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.0. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF MODERATE 20-KT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 06W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE ARE NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED STR DRIFTS TO THE EAST. DUE TO THE UNFAVORABLE VWS, THE SYSTEM WILL BE HINDERED FROM FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND BARELY MAINTAIN TD INTENSITY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE NEAR JHAN JIANG, CHINA, BEFORE TAU 36. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UKMET TO THE LEFT OF AND NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE ENVELOPE. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET NOGAPS' UNLIKELY INCURSION INTO THE STR. // NNNN