WDPN31 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (SARIKA) WARNING NR 
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (SARIKA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. A 092218Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LLCC WITH A 
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SYSTEM. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON 
THE EXPOSED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 
KNOTS BASED ON THE OVERALL BANDING STRUCTURE IN RECENT MICROWAVE 
IMAGERY. WHILE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW HAS REMAINED EXTREMELY FAVORABLE, 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE INHIBITED BY 20 KNOTS OF NORTHERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) 
CELL TO THE NORTHEAST. TS SARIKA IS CURRENTLY STEERING ALONG THE 
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING 
RIDGE.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING INCREASINGLY POLEWARD 
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL EAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA NEAR TAU 24. AS THE 
TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST FILLS, FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, MODERATE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE LAND 
INTERACTION CAUSES THE SYSTEM TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 
48. AFTER LANDFALL, REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO THE 
NORTHEAST, AHEAD OF A TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT, WITH ALL 
MODELS INDICATING A POLEARD TRACK BEFORE RE-CURVATURE OVER 
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA. WBAR IS THE ONLY OUTLIER TRACKING THE SYSTEM 
FURTHER WESTWARD, BEFORE A SHARP RE-CURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS 
FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST TRACK 
AND IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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