WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE FORMING ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY AND WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC).  THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LLCC IS CHARACTERIZED BY 
SHALLOW CONVECTION AND LIMITED BANDING. A 082211Z SSMIS PASS ALSO 
SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM 
WITH SOME WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW THE SYSTEM HAS VERY GOOD 
OUTFLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS DEVELOPING A CHANNEL OF OUTFLOW INTO 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE EAST. ALSO EVIDENT 
IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS A SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTH 
OF THE SYSTEM THAT IS LIKELY SUPPRESSING THE CONVECTION ON THE 
NORTHERN SIDE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE FIRST FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM AND IS THE INITIAL 
FORECAST REASONING. 
   B. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY 
OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE 
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
BEFORE ROUNDING THE WELL MODELED WESTERN EXTENT OF THE STR BETWEEN 
36 AND 48 HOURS.  AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE TO THE 
NORTHEAST AS IT MOVES INTO THE WESTRLIES OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. MODEL 
DEVELOPMENT IS VERY SLOW FOR THIS SYSTEM, AS THE TUTT IS EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE LOCATION OF THE 
TUTT WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW TO THE NORTH OF THE 
SYSTEMS CURRENT LOCATION. ALL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, 
WITH NOGAPS, GFS AND UKMET RIGHT IN LINE WITH EACH OTHER AND 
CONSENSUS. JGSM AND WBAR ARE THE EASTERN AND WESTERN OUTLIERS. THE 
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS AS THE SYSTEM IS A LITTLE 
DEEPER THAN MOST MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED AT, AND THE SYSTEM WILL 
LIKELY TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD WHERE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS 
ANALYZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AS IT MOVED OFF OF 
THE PHILIPPINES, AND NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO CATCH UP.//
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