subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical depression 23w (Hagibis) warning nr 30// rmks/ 1. For meteorologists. 2. 12 hour summary and analysis. A. Tropical depression (td) 23w (Hagibis) has tracked generally east- Ward and weakened over the past 12 hours. The low- to mid-level near equatorial ridge located south of the storm has been the primary steering influence. Deep convection has been limited to the western quadrants of the storm due to moderate vertical wind shear. B. TD 23w is located approximately 425 nm west-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Current position is based on recent subjective satellite fixes and a 252259z tmi microwave image. Current intensity is based on satellite-derived estimates ranging from 25 kt to 55 kts. Current wind radii are based on the latest CIRA multiplatform wind analysis. 3. Forecast reasoning. A. The forecast reasoning for TD 23w has not changed since the last issue of this bulletin. B. TD 23w will continue tracking eastward along the northern periphery of the near equatorial ridge. Competing influences of moderate vertical wind shear, weak divergence aloft, and marginal ocean heat content will act to weaken TD 23w throughout the forecast period. After tau 36, interaction with the Philippine Islands will further weaken the storm. This scenario is supported by the objective aids, which are in fair agreement. C. Beyond tau 72, the weakened circulation will re-emerge into the Philippine Sea. The system will then begin to track more poleward under the influence of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge to the northeast. At this time, numerical guidance does not suggest re-intensification in the Philippine Sea. 4. Justification for correction: corrected system references to TD 23w in all paragraphs.