subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 23w (Hagibis) warning nr 14// rmks/ 1. For meteorologists. 2. 12 hour summary and analysis a. Typhoon (TY) 23w was relocated based on recent microwave imagery at 220019z (ssmi) and 211828z (amsr-e) which depicted a microwave eye feature and indicated that the system consolidated further northeast than the previous warning showed. Therefore, the system was relocated about 58 nm east-northeast of the previous warning position at 21/18z. The system was upgraded to typhoon status on the 21/18z warning and has intensified slightly over the past 12 hours. The models remain in poor agreement after tau 12 with two groupings of models. B. TY 23w is tracking under the steering influence of the deep subtropical ridge positioned north of the system. Recent upper-level analyses depict a high centered west of Hainan Island with the ridge extending eastward north of the system. The sounding from 59981 at 16n 112e showed 20-knot easterly winds which support the westward track. The current intensity is based on an average of dvorak estimates ranging from 65 to 77 knots and an AMSU intensity estimate of 68 knots at 211828z. The current position is based on the 220019z SSMI and a loosely-clustered grouping of satellite position fixes. 3. Forecast reasoning. A. There is no significant change to forecast reasoning since the previous prog. B. TY 23w is forecast to track west-northwestward and to weaken gradually prior to making landfall near tau 48 as it encounters drier air and marginal ocean heat content. This forecast is based on the model consensus through tau 36 but favors a west-northwestward track afterwards. The available dynamic aids indicate two possible scenarios with NOGAPS, GFDN, TCLAPS and WBAR supporting the forecast track and ukmo, JGSM, ECMWF and GFS indicating a rapidly weakening system and track turn back to the northeast. These models reflect an excessive interaction with TY 24w which is unlikely based on the approximate 1000 nm separation distance between the two systems at this time. At this time, an alternate scenario is deemed unlikely based on the strength of the steering ridge north of the system. C. The system is expected to move inland and dissipate over land after tau 72. Forecast team: Alpha//