msgid/genadmin/navpacmetoccen Pearl Harbor hi/jtwc//
subj/prognostic reasoning for tropical storm 22w warning nr 05//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. 12 hour summary and analysis.
   A. Tropical Storm (TS) 22w (Tapah) has maintained intensity
over the past 12 hours and it has continued to undergo extra-
tropical transition. Deep convection remains limited to the
northeastern quadrant and the storm is now under the influence
of 25 to 30 knots of vertical wind shear. The system has tracked
steadily to the northeast to east-northeast over the past 12 hours. 
   B. The current intensity is based on recent Dvorak estimates
from pgtw, rjtd and knes. The low level center remains to the
southwest of the deepest convection. The current position is based
upon fixes from the aforementioned agencies and a 1212004z trmm
image. The system is tracking along the northwestern periphery
of the steering ridge and is interacting with the midlatitude
westerlies.
3. Forecast reasoning.
   A. The forecast reasoning for ts 22w remains unchanged from the
previous prog reasoning.
   B. Ts 22w is expected to continue tracking to the east-northeast
and to weaken as it continues to undergo extratropical transition.
The system is expected to be fully extratropical by tau 12.
Forecast team: Delta//