WDPN32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 15W WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 100000Z TO 130000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. TY 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTH-
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF
JAPAN. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA
THROUGH TAU 24, WHILE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN CHINA WEAKENS.
TY 15W WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWEST TRACK AND MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 36
SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, CHINA. THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF COAMPS, EGRR,
GFDN, GFS, JGSM, JTYM, AFWA MM5, NOGAPS, TCLAPS AND WBAR ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SENARIO WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND AFWA MM5
WHICH ARE THE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTLIERS, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL DYNAMIC AIDS. AN ALTERNATE
FORECAST SCENARIO EXISTS IN WHICH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER EASTERN
CHINA DOES NOT WEAKEN. THIS WOULD CAUSE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF TY
15W WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF RECURVING PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
CHINA.
   C. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY BEFORE
WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND AND ENTRAIN DRY CONTIN-
ENTAL AIR AFTER TAU 24. TY 15W IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
LAND BY TAU 72.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 092122Z QUIKSCAT PASS. FORE-
CAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//

NNNN