WDPN32 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 15W WARNING NR 06//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z TO 120000Z SEP 2005.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (KHANUN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320
NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TS 15W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG 
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE
THAT IS ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. AFTER TAU 36, THE STEERING RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA AND CAUSE THE
TRACK OF 15W TO TURN MORE WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CON-
SISTING OF COAMPS, EGRR, GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS, AND WBAR ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS AND EGRR WHICH ARE POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTLIERS, RESPECTIVELY. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CON-
SENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS THROUGH 72 HOURS.
   C. TS 15W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WEAKENS THROUGH TAU 72.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 062057Z QUIKSCAT PASS AND 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED
SYSTEM.
   E. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IS 
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD WESTWARD INTO CHINA, CAUSING THE SYSTEM
TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AND MAKE FINAL LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST CHINA.
THE PROXIMITY OF TS 15W TO TAIWAN AND CHINA AT TAUS 96 AND 120 WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN.
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRAVO//