WDPN32 PGTW 021500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 19// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 493 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STY 30W HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND IT. HOWEVER, THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS SYMMETRIC OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 021200Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE 18 NM WIDE EYE. A 020906Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS STY 30W STILL HAS CONCENTRIC EYE WALLS AND IS UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN AN ADT CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T6.7 (132 KNOTS) AND DVORAK CI ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT STY 30W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO 15 KNOTS) ALONG WITH EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 29 AND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. STY 30W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW STY 30W TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 12. STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BEYOND TAU 12 WHICH ARE A RESULT OF UPWELLING PRODUCED BY TY TRAMI WHICH PASSED THROUGH THE AREA SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW KONG-REY TO STAIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY TO 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 WITH A SPREAD OF 100 NM. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACKERS DIVERGE AFTER TAU 48 AND HAVE A SPREAD OF 260 NM BY TAU 72. NAVGEM REMAINS THE NOTABLE OUTLIER TO THE WEST COMPARED WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE BY TAU 72 THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. BY THIS TIME STY 30W WILL BE OVER EVEN COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27 TO 28 DEGREES CELSIUS). HOWEVER, STY 30W WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO TAP INTO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS IT TRACKS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SLOW THE WEAKENING RATE. KONG-REY WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD BY TAU 96 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES AND COMPLETES ETT BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT KONG-REY WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER TAU 72. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED REMAIN. THEREFORE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.// NNNN