WDPN32 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 
17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON 
A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN THE EIR SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS) FROM RJTD AND KNES, AND BELOW 
THE PGTW ESTIMATE OF T7.5 (155 KTS). WHILE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS) IS LOW (5-10 KTS), THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTH 
HAS WEAKENED. AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE IS ALSO POSSIBLY 
ONGOING, BASED ON A FORMATIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL AND MOAT FEATURE IN 
A 012153Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SHORT-TERM 
WEAKENING. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED 
INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE 
CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, STY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. STY 30W IS FORECAST TO 
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12, THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN 
AS THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH MOVES WESTWARD AND IS NO 
LONGER ENHANCING OUTFLOW. THE POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE 
MAY ALSO LEAD TO SHORT-TERM INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS, WITH INITIAL 
WEAKENING AND LATER STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE AS THE PRIMARY EYEWALL 
IS STARVED OF INFLOW THEN THE SECONDARY EYEWALL CONTRACTS. 
ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 24, STY 30W WILL MOVE INTO AN AREA OF 
COOLER (26-27 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SUBOPTIMAL OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT THAT WAS CHURNED UP BY THE QUASISTATIONARY PERIOD OF STY 
28W SEVERAL DAYS PRIOR, CONTRIBUTING TO THE WEAKENING TREND. 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, WITH 100 NM OF 
SPREAD BY TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM 
REMAINS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MESOSCALE MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR 
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120, ALTHOUGH NUMERICAL 
MODELS VARY GREATLY IN THEIR DEPICTIONS OF THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING 
OF THE RECURVE. NAVGEM IS STILL THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIER, THOUGH IT 
HAS SHIFTED CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. ECMWF AND GALWEM 
ARE ALSO WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING LONGER TO 
COMPLETE THE RECURVE. HWRF, COAMPS-GFS, AND GFS CONTINUE TO BE TO 
THE EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND PREDICT A TIGHTER 
RECURVE, AND ALSO ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM FURTHER INTO THE SEA OF 
JAPAN AT TAU 120. THE MAJOR VARIATIONS BETWEEN MODELS ARE IN TRACK 
SPEED. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTIMODEL 
CONSENSUS. BEFORE TAU 96, STY 30W WILL MOVE INTO COOLER WATERS 
BELOW 26C, WHILE A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH MOVES OVER MANCHURIA, 
ALLOWING STY 30W TO TAP INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND AGAIN 
DEVELOP A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL 
SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE LAND INTERACTION WITH THE KOREAN PENINSULA, 
COOLER SSTS, AND HIGHER VWS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PROVIDING AN 
OTHERWISE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AT TAU 120, AS STY 30W 
ACCELERATES POLEWARD AND INTERACTS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH, IT 
WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IN THE 
LATE TERM IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY 
CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE ALONG-TRACK MODEL SPREAD OF 970 NM BY TAU 120, 
CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
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