WDPN32 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON A 15 NM ROUND EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.5 (127 KTS) FROM PGTW, 
RJTD, AND KNES. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT RADIAL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) ARE 
SUPPORTIVE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION (TY 30W HAS INTENSIFIED BY 45 
KTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS). THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, THE 
ORIENTATION OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL NO LONGER ENHANCE THE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND THE INTENSITY WILL BEGIN TO FALL, 
GRADUALLY AT FIRST THEN MORE RAPIDLY AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT 
BECOMES UNFAVORABLE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT 
AGREEMENT, WITH 100 NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE 
TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE STR 
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
REMAIN UNFAVORABLE AND THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, FALLING 
TO AN INTENSITY OF 75 KTS BY TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST 
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS 
IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE HIGH END 
OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WITH SPREAD INCREASING TO OVER 
500 NM BY TAU 120, CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC 
TRACK FORECAST IS LOW.//
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