WDPN32 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING NR 11//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
FEEDER BANDS FROM ALL QUADRANTS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BEING OBSCURED BY DEEP CENTRAL 
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE 
USING A 301219Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A PARTIAL MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS BETWEEN DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES THAT RANGE FROM T4.0 TO T4.5 (65-77 
KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE OVERALL AS MODERATE (10-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS BEING OFFSET BY EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 30W IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE 
TRACK IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EFFECT AN EXTREME EASTERN OUTLIER 
(COAMPS-GFS) IS HAVING ON THE CONSENSUS TRACK NOW THAT THE OTHER 10 
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
   B. THROUGH TAU 72, TY 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY 
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND ALLOW FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A 
PEAK OF 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-GFS, WHICH 
RECURVES THE TRACK POLEWARD AROUND THE STR AXIS AFTER TAU 24, 
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND, 
BASED ON THE SPREAD (MINUS COAMPS-GFS) BEING 85 NM BY TAU 72, 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 30W WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY ROUND THE WESTERN 
EDGE OF THE STR AXIS AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD, PASSING WEST OF 
OKINAWA BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120. HIGH VWS AND REDUCED OUTFLOW SHOULD 
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. EXCLUDING COAMPS-
GFS AND THE JGSM (SOUTHERN OUTLIER), DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120. DESPITE THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. 
THIS IS BECAUSE THE LATEST ECMWF MODEL RUN (300000Z) WAS THE FIRST 
TIME THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN JOINED THE REST OF THE 
GUIDANCE.//
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