WDPN32 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNING 
NR 09//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (KONG-REY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1013 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AS THE CENTRAL
CONVECTION DEEPENED AND FORMATIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST, HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT
REMAINS OBSCURED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A
WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 292231Z GPM MICROWAVE IMAGE
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND RJTD, AND T4.5 FROM
KNES, AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE SIGNATURE.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TS 30W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA ARE ALSO PERENNIALLY
FAVORABLE AT 30-31 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND FUEL GRADUAL AND POSSIBLY RAPID
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS BY TAU 60. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO 200 NM BY TAU
72. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK THAT IS LAID VIRTUALLY ON TOP OF THE CONSENSUS.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TS KONG-REY WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 100
NM WEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW
WILL CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 95 KNOTS BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT WITH EEMN AND ECMWF OFFERING A
BIFURCATED SOLUTION TO THE EXTREME LEFT AND CTCX TO THE RIGHT MARGIN
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD (OVER 450 NM AT
TAU 120), THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
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