WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING 
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 263 NM 
EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF 
A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122245Z 
WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
DEFINED LLCC WITH ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM 
ZHANJIANG, CHINA (59658), APPROXIMATELY 15NM WSW OF THE CENTER, 
INDICATE WESTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WITH SLP NEAR 1004.5MB. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TS 27W IS 
TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA.        
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS BARIJAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD OVER THE LEIZHOU 
PENINSULA. THROUGH TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN 
GULF OF TONKIN AND WILL THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER VIETNAM JUST AFTER 
TAU 12 WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 36. TS 27W MAY INTENSIFY 
SLIGHTLY BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 12, HOWEVER, MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL 
CONDITIONS INCLUDING WEAK DIFFLUENCE, LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR 
ENTRAINMENT ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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