WDPN32 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (BARIJAT) WARNING 
NR 12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (BARIJAT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 93 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS
FLARING CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF BUT MOSTLY OBSCURING THE LOW 
LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A RAGGED BUT DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURE IN THE 121015Z WINDSAT
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS AVERAGED
BETWEEN RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 AND T3.0
(35-45 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE
(15-20 KT)
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 29 CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SHALLOW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS WARNING.
   B. TS BARIJAT WILL CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STR,
CROSSING THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AFTER TAU 12 AND STRADDLING THE SOUTH
CHINA COAST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER NORTHERN VIETNAM NEAR THE
CHINESE BORDER AROUND TAU 30. INCREASED LAND INTERACTION WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 AFTER
LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO HIGH SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.//
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