WDPN31 PGTW 020300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 25W (JEBI) WARNING NR 24// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 25W (JEBI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO DETERIORATE AS INDICATED BY WARMING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS INVARIABLY OBSCURED A VERY LARGE, RAGGED, BUT WELL-DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A CLOSED LLC IN THE 012148Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. TY 25W IS STILL TRACKING ALONG AN AREA WITH LOW (5-15 KNOT) VWS, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 C) SSTS. HOWEVER, A TUTT TO THE WEST IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND STIFLING OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. ADDITIONALLY, COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EVIDENT ON THE EIR LOOP. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. B. TY JEBI WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR. BY TAU 36, IT WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEFORE TAU 54, THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU JUST SOUTH OF KYOTO. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE JAPANESE ALPS THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). DIMINISHING OUTFLOW INDUCED BY THE TUTT CELL AND THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT WILL PROMOTE THE GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE ADDITION OF LAND INTERACTION AND THE COOLER SSTS IN THE SOJ WILL ERODE THE SYSTEM MORE RAPIDLY. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ETT AND BY TAU 72, WILL BECOME A STRONG STORM-FORCE COLD-CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 36, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR-TERM PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST. AFTERWARD, MODEL FORECASTS SPREAD OUT SIGNIFICANTLY; THIS, PLUS LAND INTERACTION AND THE VARIANCE IN TRACK SPEEDS, LEND LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO CONSENSUS.// NNNN