WDPN31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 23W IS AN ASYMMETRIC TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND CONVECTION 
BEING SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING A 
COMBINATION OF THE EIR LOOP, RJTD RADAR FIXES, AND MULTIPLE SYNOPTIC 
OBSERVATIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) AND 
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 
(65 KNOTS). LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND MODERATE 
OUTFLOW ALOFT IS BEING OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE TO THE WEST AND LAND 
INTERACTION AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN JAPAN. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING 
POLEWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
TO THE EAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W HAS ROUNDED THE STR AXIS AND MADE LANDFALL OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST TIP OF SHIKOKU, JAPAN. BY TAU 12, THE TYPHOON WILL BE 
TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND, AFTER PASSING QUICKLY OVER HONSHU, BE 
UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. BY 
TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE COMPLETED ETT AND BEGIN MERGING WITH 
TS 22W INTO A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY 
WEAKEN DUE TO HIGH VWS, LIMITED OUTFLOW, LAND INTERACTION, AND COOL 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOJ. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY 
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON APPROXIMATELY 140 NM OF SPREAD BETWEEN MEMBERS 
AT TAU 36.//
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