WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 22//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS TY 23W REMAINS 
WELL ORGANIZED WITH A CLOUD-FILLED BUT EASILY DISCERNIBLE EYE. 
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC WITH ERODING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST FLANK. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CLOUD-FILLED 
EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH THE LLC FEATURE IN 
THE 222115Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS IS 
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK 
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.1-T5.0 AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENING TREND. 
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOLID; 
HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE IS BEING 
SUPPRESSED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM TYPHOON 22W TO THE NORTHWEST. 
ADDITIONALLY, RELATIVE VWS REMAINS MODERATE AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE 
CYCLONE IS ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY CIMARON WILL CREST THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 12 SHORTLY AFTER
 MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU. AFTERWARD, IT WILL CROSS
HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ) AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE 
AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS INHIBITED, AND LAND
INTERACTION WITH JAPAN TAKES ITS TOLL. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE SOJ
BELOW 27 CELSIUS, ALONG WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION STARTING AT 
TAU 36, WILL PROMOTE A MORE RAPID EROSION. BY TAU 48, TY 23W WILL 
BECOME A NEAR GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW JUST WEST OF HOKKAIDO. 
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TRACK 
OVER LAND AND THE ANTICIPATED BINARY INTERACTION WITH A SECOND 
CYCLONE (TY 22W) IN THE SOJ, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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