WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS HIGHLY-SYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE
BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A SHARPLY-OUTLINED 28-NM EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM T5.5-T6.2 AND REFLECTS THE SIGNIFICANT 6-HOUR INTENSIFICATION.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS.
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING  ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY CIMARON WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWARD 
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS
BETWEEN TAUS 36-48 BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN SHIKOKU.
AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM WILL CROSS HONSHU AND EXIT INTO THE SEA OF
JAPAN (SOJ) AS IT BEGINS TO RECURVE AND ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. THE
SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS VWS INCREASES AND
LAND INTERACTION WITH JAPAN TAKES ITS TOLL. ADDITIONALLY, SSTS IN THE
SOJ BELOW 27 CELSIUS, CONCURRENT WITH EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 48 WILL ALSO PROMOTE A MORE RAPID EROSION. BY TAU 72, TY 23W WILL
BECOME A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANDING WIND FIELD
OVER HOKKAIDO. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AFUM
AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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