WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF AGRIHAN, CNMI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND A 202358Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A NASCENT EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION 
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS 
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 
(65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH 
MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT 
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (ABOUT 29 CELSIUS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD ALONG 
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR UNTIL ROUNDING THE RIDGE AXIS AT 
ABOUT TAU 72. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE AND 
SUPPORT STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 23W REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
85 KTS AROUND TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO 
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS TY 23W MOVES AWAY FROM A TUTT CELL THAT IS 
CURRENTLY AIDING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE 
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD INCREASES 
DRAMATICALLY AS TY 23W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD TO 
EASTWARD AS IT TRACKS WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH VWS WILL 
CAUSE TY 23W TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATER AND 
INTERACTS WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE GALWEM MODEL IS THE 
PRIMARY OUTLIER WITH AN ERRONEOUS TRACK INTO AN OCCLUDED LOW OVER 
MANCHURIA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT DUE TO LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED, THEREFORE, THERE 
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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