WDPN31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON) WARNING 
NR 10//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. TYPHOON 23W (CIMARON), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INFLOW WRAPPING INTO A SMALL FLARE OF CENTRAL 
CONVECTION IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. A 192120Z GMI 91GHZ 
IMAGE SHOWS A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED FROM THE LLCC, 
AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS, IN LINE WITH THE KNES DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 
PGTW ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS). 22W TO THE NORTHWEST HAS LARGELY 
MOVED TOO FAR WEST TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT 23W WITH NORTHERLY OUTFLOW, 
LEADING TO REDUCED (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH ALONG WITH 
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29 CELSIUS), EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD 
OUTFLOW, AND OUTFLOW TOWARDS A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST, HAS ALLOWED 
23W TO INTENSIFY. HOWEVER, IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY THE 
CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AT TIMES DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS. 
THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 23W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH TAU 72. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS 
EXPECTED DUE TO THE LOWER VWS AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW, WITH 23W 
REACHING A PEAK OF 85 KTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48, 23W WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, AS 23W MOVES AWAY FROM THE TUTT CELL AND ITS 
OUTFLOW IS REDUCED. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON 
STORM TRACK. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL TURN NORTHWARD 
AND TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY TAU 120 AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS 
AND BEGINS TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). UNCERTAINTY IN 
THE TRACK CONTINUES TO GROW AS THE DEGREE OF TURNING AND THE ALONG-
TRACK SPEED VARIES CONSIDERABLY AMONG THE MODELS, WITH 435 NM OF 
SPREAD AT TAU 96. TY 23W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER 
HONSHU INTO COOLER WATER IN THE SEA OF JAPAN AND INTERACTS WITH A 
PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND THE REMNANTS OF TY 22W. THE JTWC 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY 
CONSENSUS. THE HWRF AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) MODELS NOTABLY INCREASED 
IN FORECAST INTENSITY THIS RUN, REACHING A PEAK OF 90-100 KTS BY TAU 
48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.//
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