WDPN35 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 35// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM EAST OF OSAN AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A DECOUPLED SYSTEM, WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC JUST ONSHORE ON THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH KOREA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE MSI, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH SHORE AND BUOYS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE. POSITIONING WAS SUPPORTED BY A 232203Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE LLCC TO THE SOUTH OF AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION, AND CONFIRMED THE DECOUPLED NATURE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL IS SET AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORTING 35-39 KNOTS OFFSHORE, AS WELL AS MSLP READINGS NEAR 990 MB. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM LIES IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30+ KNOTS) VWS, WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT IS LIKELY ALREADY UNDERWAY, BUT WILL NONETHELESS BE COMPLETE BY TAU 36. AT ANALYSIS TIME, THE LLCC WAS STILL ONSHORE, BUT SUBSEQUENT IMAGERY REVEALS THAT IT LIKELY HAS EMERGED INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN BY 0130Z, AND IS TRACKING A HIGH RATE OF SPEED TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THIS TREND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. INCREASING VWS AND THE RESULTANT DECOUPLING, COMBINED WITH INCREASINGLY COOL SSTS, WILL COMBINE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM THROUGH ETT, LEADING TO A 30 KNOT EXTRA-TROPICAL SYSTEM JUST NORTH OF HOKKAIDO. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH SOME INCREASING SPREAD THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TURN TOWARDS THE EAST BEYOND TAU 36. THE MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 36 HAS INCREASED TO 215 NM BETWEEN THE GFS AND HWRF ON THE NORTHERN EDGE, AND THE EGRR ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN