WDPN35 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SASEBO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE 
55 NM RAGGED EYE WITH FAIRLY SYMMETRIC FEEDER BANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY 
INTO THE LLC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP VERY WELL WITH 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURES SEEN IN 210645Z SSMIS 91GHZ AND 37GHZ IMAGES. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS HEDGED TO THE HIGH END OF MULTI-
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T4.5-T5.0 (77-90 KTS) AND 
REFLECTS THE GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OVER THE 
LAST 6 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE (15 TO 20 
KNOT) VWS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. TY SOULIK WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR
EXTENSION AND WILL CREST THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 24 AND TRACK 
NORTH THEN NORTHEASTWARD. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL BEGIN ETT. THE 
SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF SOUTH KOREA 
JUST SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL AROUND TAU 36. AFTERWARD, IT WILL ACCELERATE 
OVER THE PENINSULA, WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH 
THE RUGGED MOUNTAIN RANGE OF THE KOREAN PENINSULA. BY TAU 72, TY 22W 
WILL COMPLETE ETT JUST NORTH OF VLADIVOSTOK, RUSSIA. THERE IS A WIDE 
SPREAD AMONG THE NUMERICAL MODELS AFTER TAU 24, AND SEVERAL MODEL 
TRACKERS WERE UNAVAILABLE FOR THE LATEST MODEL RUN. DUE TO THE LARGE 
SPREAD IN GUIDANCE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK.//
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