WDPN35 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A 45NM LARGE EYE, WHICH 
SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. A 202140Z SSMIS 
37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE 
EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS BASED ON 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 5.0 (90 KNOTS) TO 
5.5 (102 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 28-29 CELSIUS. TY 22W IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. 
   B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREAD BEGINS TO INCREASE AS THE CYCLONE STARTS 
ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 48. AFTER TAU 24, INCREASING VWS 
AND LAND INTERACTION OVER KOREA ARE EXPECTED TO SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN 
THE CYCLONE. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD TO NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA WHILE WEAKENING RAPIDLY. THE 
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) NEAR TAU 
72 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. 
THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS WITH SEVERAL 
MODELS (AFUM,UKMO,GFS) ERRONEOUSLY TRACKING THE SYSTEM CYCLONICALLY 
ACROSS THE POLAR JET INTO A LARGE OCCLUDED LOW OVER NORTHEAST CHINA. 
THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS NAVGEM, AEMN, ECMF, HWRF AND JGSM, WHICH 
INDICATE A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD VLADIVOSTOK. TY 22W IS 
FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE 
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE LARGE SPREAD IN NUMERICAL 
GUIDANCE.//
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