WDPN35 PGTW 201500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNING NR 21// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN APPROXIMATELY 40 NM WIDE EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS ANNULAR WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS, CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5- 10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF ABOUT 28 CELSIUS. TY 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THROUGH TAU 36, TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE NORTH. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36 BUT SPREAD BEGINS TO GROW AS THE CYCLONE STARTS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS AROUND TAU 48. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE HAS TAKEN ON AN ANNULAR APPEARANCE, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36, INCREASING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION OVER KOREA ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, SOLELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SPREAD AFTER TAU 36 AS 22W ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. C. TY 22W WILL BEGIN TRACKING INLAND OVER KOREA AROUND TAU 72. SHORTLY AFTER TAU 72, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE BAROCLINIC ZONE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK HAS GROWN CONSIDERABLY WITH THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUN. THIS RUN, THE WESTERNMOST MODELS KEEP THE LLCC OVER THE YELLOW SEA WHILE THE EASTERNMOST MODELS BRING THE CYCLONE ASHORE NEAR BUSAN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THROUGHOUT THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST, HIGH VWS AND LAND INTERACTION ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TY 22W, AND THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 20 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES ETT AROUND TAU 120. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY DURING AND AFTER ROUNDING THE STR AXIS.// NNNN